by KA-BAR » Tue May 03, 2011 8:57 am
The long view of history I believe is going to largely confirm that Bush's initial approach in the Afghan region was correct. Iraq will take a lot more debate.
I think both Bush and Obama deserve credit for this. Bush for developing the initial policy, laying the pressure as was, and then reforming our approach at the end of his presidency that led up to this. Obama for continuing it, fine-tuning it, and having enough faith in the generals, professionals, and soldiers that executed this. The last of the three in turn I agree deserve the most credit. They pounded the shoe leather tracking this guy and in the end took the genuine risk of executing this mission, much as they have done day-in and day-out. Even if Bin Laden may have lost influence over the years, this sends out major signals in every regard to noone who is a genuine threat can get away. That high level of a kill can often do a lot to shatter the ranks of any organization, because now everyone within Al-Qaeda and it's variously tied militias can no longer trust anyone or believe to an inkling that they can work without surveillance, regardless of tight-knit their operation is.
Regarding Pakistan, the double-game has been going since at least the late 1990's when ISI backed the Taliban in both arms and cash as they took over Afghanistan, and the country its self has an extensive history of either directly and indirectly funding madrassas and as a society are still getting dividends from their islamist policies in the 1970's, much of those finding their home in the Pakistani military and intelligence services, which effectively govern the country. Pakistani democracy is simply the skin over what is still very much a military dictatorship, and it's probably our continued intervention and diplomatic pressure that has kept it from reverting.
Regardless, I'm on the same boat in terms of the double-scheming, but anyone who has even a rough background into Pakistani history especially in the past 40 years will know though that their foremost regional interests are in the control of Afghanistan, and through the past 30 years have demonstrated that they are willing to back anyone who can secure them that control via proxy state. The Mujahadeen fit that role through the 1980's, The Taliban fit that role in the late 1990's, and Karzai fit that role until a few years ago until it became clear that his government will likely not survive once we draw down. And if one pays attention to the trends, Pakistan has proven an extensive history of recieving arms and supplies from the U.S. and other major powers, letting them intervene in the region, but all the while subverting that same power in order to ensure that at the end of the day they are in position to re-assume control in whatever form it may be. Considering what all Afghanistan offers in terms of the opium trade, resources, potential gas pipeline trails (which would funnel through the Indus Valley and into Karachi,) they have every notion to be interested and assertive in trying to dominate it. The problem coming in that fact that they are also willing to support men of very perverted worldview and ideology, the Taliban being the clearest example of this.
Bin Laden I worry is going to become proof of this, although I hope to God that he got there through factions that the Pakistani military is indeed trying to eliminate since recent years have shown that many of those tribal/islamist groups do not have the support of the vast share of the Pakistani people or military. Worst case scenario is going to be though that Al-Qaeda and likeminded groups do have a prolific amount of officials, officers, and generals within the Pakistani military and intelligence, and with them being a nuclear state, you can see where this is going. I agree with you though Extreme, we need to go ahead and start preparing for India becoming a player in the region now, because it's becoming clearer and clearer that a significant portion of the Pakistani gov't, army and ISI can not be trusted, and they're betraying our trust in likely some of the worst ways imaginable for what is likely amounting to little more than a prolonged regionalist agenda.
we need to put our chip on india....and if pakistan decides to court china....we will dismantle them piece by piece.
Last edited by
KA-BAR on Tue May 03, 2011 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
I am not half as good as I want to be, but I am twice as good as you think I am.